"Europe is unraveling. Executive Email List " or so the story goes 24 hours a day at various levels of intensity. It's not as though the media has a slight bent toward sensationalism or something - that's a joke in case you're from out of town. There's a very exciting story that is plain on the face of it. I'll give you a hint: the population Phone Number List of the Eurozone is 333 million people. The collective population of China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Turkey is 3.7 billion. Or, if you aren't doing the math already, the Executive Email List is more than 11x times the Eurozone. But who's to say that those 66.6 million Eurozone consumers stop spending indefinitely?
My love goes out to Europe Executive Email List but let's take a few steps back to some economic principles here: spending = income = spending = income = spending. Let's assume a very bad scenario with Europe and that their spending (or consumption) drops by 20% (this would be on par with The Great Depression). Which for "back of the Phone Number List envelope" numbers would be like instead of there being 333 million spenders suddenly being 266 million spenders (a loss of 66.6 million spenders). Executive Email List Their problems will get fixed, eventually and we'll go back to this highly complex economic equation:
However, in a land far Executive Email List away, a gargantuan middle class is emerging among a sampling pool of 3.7 billion people (and there are more, but I'm just sticking to the listed countries). If 66.6 million spenders Poland Phone Number List are created by their rapid emergence into higher standards of living, the two global numbers would cancel each other out. And what percent of the 3.7 billion Executive Email List people would be needed? 0.018% That's basically one out of every 5,000 people.
Interesting back of the envelope framing, but I would stress that global demand is not a single interchangeable bucket. A loss of Eurozone consumption would not be perfectly offset by new middle class spending in Asia or Africa because baskets differ, currencies move, and supply chains are sticky. A German household trimming services and durable goods will not be replaced one for one by a new Indonesian consumer who spends more on staples, data plans, and first time appliances. Trade frictions and standards matter too, as do credit cycles and demographics. The multiplier is also asymmetric. A twenty percent shock inside a tightly integrated currency area hits investment plans and labor markets in ways that radiate outward through banks and suppliers. The good news is that emerging markets continue to lift millions into higher incomes, which cushions swings and broadens product markets, especially for mobile first services. Diversification wins over prediction here. After heavy macro reading I take a short break with tiny stakes and strict timers. The interface at megapariĀ is clean and quick to learn. Keep a budget and play for fun